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forecasting techniques

Flood forecasting: Precipitable water (PWAT) > 99th percentile is critical

April 30, 2019April 18, 2016 by Chris Robbins
Atmospheric precipitable water content anomaly, valid this afternoon/evening (11/22/14). To determine the percent of normal, multiply the legend by 100.

Global Wind 7-Day Satellite Loop Note: The purpose of this post is to share advanced forecasting techniques, not present formal research at this time.   Example Case: April 17-18, 2016 Heavy Rain Event in North Texas ◙  I wanted to show some of the 48-hour rainfall amounts as of 7:00 am CDT April 18, 2016 (officially … Read more

DFW: Severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday Evening 4/26

December 18, 2016April 25, 2016 by Chris Robbins
Forecast sounding for Fort Worth valid 7pm CDT April 26, 2016

I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of … Read more

Dry line convergence & thunderstorm squall line formation

December 18, 2016April 26, 2016 by Chris Robbins

This phenomenon is NOT unusual, but it doesn’t always happen.  Today, the dry line and the resulting squall-line were perfectly aligned.  The data presented a teaching moment that I couldn’t pass up.  At the end of the animation, I zoom in so you can see the wind barbs pointing toward the dry line. The air … Read more

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