weather forecasting Archives

Flood forecasting: Precipitable water (PWAT) > 99th percentile is critical

April 30, 2019April 18, 2016 by Chris Robbins

Atmospheric precipitable water content anomaly, valid this afternoon/evening (11/22/14). To determine the percent of normal, multiply the legend by 100.

Global Wind 7-Day Satellite Loop Note: The purpose of this post is to share advanced forecasting techniques, not present formal research at this time. Example Case: April 17-18, 2016 Heavy Rain Event in North Texas ◙ I wanted to show some of the 48-hour rainfall amounts as of 7:00 am CDT April 18, 2016 (officially … Read more

A few thoughts on forecast techniques & forecast variance

January 3, 2017February 12, 2016 by Chris Robbins

Friday 2/12… For the sake of conversation, I wanted to share some thoughts about forecast variance (i.e., the tendency for forecasts to vary from one meteorologist to another), forecast advancements, and forecast techniques. It goes without saying that atmospheric prediction is *extremely* difficult and time consuming. During an active pattern, a forecast for a 36-hour … Read more