Where is Hurricane Matthew headed?

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Important Update #1 [Monday 10/3 at 3 pm EDT]

Since this page was created 8 hours ago, new model data have continued to trend the track of Hurricane Matthew westward, closer to the eastern Florida coast, tracking northeast along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.  If future data continue to show this trend, Hurricane Watches may be warranted for those coastal areas Wednesday/Thursday. 

This is is becoming an increasingly disconcerting situation, but let’s take things one step at a time; rest assured that I will do my part to keep you advised and some of the smartest people I know are colleagues of mine at the National Hurricane Center.  The NHC forecast track map below updates in real-time. Also, you can use the interactive hurricane products on iWeatherNet. 

Original Matthew Update [7 am EDT Monday 10/3]

Latest Forecast Track from the NHC (Updates Automatically)

You can also use our interactive tropical cyclone map to view more data about Hurricane Matthew.

Remarkable Intra-Model Consistency

I rarely share model data, but I am making an exception with Hurricane Matthew. I have analyzed model solutions from the past 5 days and I have seen remarkable consistency in the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. Forecasters look for this type of consistency and trends; the European model (ECMWF) has also trended closer to the Southeast coast. This does NOT mean it’s a guarantee, because future model solutions may begin to trend away from this scenario. However, Hurricane Matthew is a powerful storm and it is imperative that folks in the Southeast, from Florida to Virginia, pay very close attention to this storm.

This is an animation of the past 15 GFS model runs, beginning with 18z September 30 through the most recent run on the evening of October 2. Each image in this animation is valid at the same time: 7 am EDT Saturday October 8. You can easily see that the model solutions have trended the position of Hurricane Matthew closer to North Carolina by Saturday morning.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has shown remarkable consistency. Other models have trended closer to the GFS solutions.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) model has shown remarkable consistency. Other models have trended toward the GFS solution. Graphics provided by: Levi Cowan – Florida State University | Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science.