Forecast Discussion for DFW/North Texas [Posted on Monday 10/23/17] …Coolest air so far this season arrives Friday… ➤ Following highs in the low-mid 80s today, a weak cold front tonight will bring temperatures back down to seasonal levels tomorrow and Wednesday. ➤ A bit warmer on Thursday, ahead of the next cold front, with temperatures … Read more
Dallas/Fort Worth/North Texas Forecast Summary [Wednesday 10/25] ➤ As I discussed in my previous DFW forecast posted on Monday, the coldest air so far this season will overspread North Texas on Friday. ➤ Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90º tomorrow (Thursday, October 26) thanks to downslope/compressional warming with southwest winds. ➤ … Read more
On the morning of October 14th, 2017, at 11:00am AST, Hurricane Ophelia was upgraded to a rare major hurricane south of the Azores Islands in the far northeastern Atlantic. Ophelia is a Category-3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 115mph. Three days earlier, on October 11th, Ophelia became the 10th consecutive … Read more
As of 5:00pm AST on Saturday, September 30th, 2017, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issued their final advisory for Tropical Storm Maria. During the past 49 days, there were five major hurricanes (Category-3 or higher) in the Atlantic Basin. These hurricanes had the names of: Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, and Maria. Hurricane Irma … Read more
A Climatology Of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones In The North Atlantic Basin, 1975-2000 25th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (2002) Chris C. Robbins and Stacy R. Stewart National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida 1. Introduction Rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones pose a significant forecast problem for operational meteorologists. Unfortunately, the climatological nature of such … Read more
Trends In The Ratio Of Damage To Deaths Caused By United States Land-Falling Hurricanes 24th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (2000) Chris C. Robbins and James Gross National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida We have estimated that, if the pre-reconnaissance trend continued at the time of Hurricane Andrew, approximately 4,354 deaths may have … Read more
Weather folklore has probably been around as long as humans have been able to communicate verbally. Is there any truth to these, or are they just part of human myths and legends? Here, we will classify some of the weather folklore as truth or myth. “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight; red sky in the morning, sailors … Read more
A total solar eclipse will occur across parts of the United States on August 21st, 2017. The path of totality will cross over the following states: Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The total eclipse over the U.S. will begin at 10:15am PDT in Oregon, and … Read more
If you are searching for diverse weather or extreme temperatures and precipitation, the U.S. is certainly one of the places to be. Have you ever wondered what U.S. city is the coldest or the warmest? What city experiences the most rainfall or the most thunderstorms? I thought that it would be interesting to come up with … Read more
Hurricane season starts on June 1st and runs through November 30. This time frame was created based on long-term statistics, but hurricanes can certainly occur outside of this range. In January 2016, for example, Hurricane Alex became the strongest Atlantic hurricane to occur during the northern hemispheric winter. So, irrespective of the date, take some … Read more
We simply can’t over stress the importance of disaster preparation. This includes having a stockpile of non-perishable foods, water, first aid supplies, backup battery power, and a reliable means of receiving accurate, critical information. A good way to start an emergency preparedness kit is to have a NOAA Weather Radio (NOAA; National Oceanic and Atmospheric … Read more
Determining the type of supercells that may occur within a given severe weather environment is important for a multitude of reasons. A supercell is a thunderstorm that rotates. There are three types of supercells: low-precipitation (LP), classic, and high-precipitation (HP). The configuration of the wind shear profiles within a severe weather environment is critical in diagnosing … Read more
Going solar lets you slash heating bills, reduce your home’s carbon footprint, and embrace a green lifestyle. Installing solar panels can give you energy independence. However, you can still “go solar” and reduce heating bills without investing a fortune in expensive solar panels. Every unit of electricity you save is a unit you effectively generate. … Read more
January 14, 2016 (1 pm EST) Max-Sustained Wind: 75 kt / 85 mph / 981 mb / Category 1 View the list of active tropical cyclones Interesting Statistics about Hurricane Alex Alex is only the 2nd-known Atlantic hurricane to form during the month of January since records began (partial record as far back as 1842). … Read more
On May 25th, 2016, a large and violent, long-track tornado tore through the landscape across north-central Kansas causing extensive damage along Interstate 70 between Abilene and Chapman, Kansas. What was a marginal day for severe weather ended up producing one of the most violent tornadoes of the 2016 season. We visited Chapman on Saturday, July 23rd, … Read more
On Tuesday, May 24th, 2016, an outbreak of tornadoes occurred across western Kansas. There were 13 observed total tornadoes a cyclic supercell near Dodge City, Kansas including four sets of twin tornadoes, a set of triplets, and a large multi-vortex tornado and wedge tornado. So far, the National Weather Service in Dodge City, Kansas, surveyed 9 … Read more
Saturday, May 21st, was the start of a week long period of severe weather across the Great Plains. From southern Texas to the High Plains in North Dakota, isolated tornadoes, large hail, and severe winds, were forecasted. Perusing model guidance the night before on Friday, May 20th, we had an idea of our target for Saturday: Western … Read more
Long-track supercells formed across the western Great Plains on Tuesday, May 16th, 2017. Accompanied with these supercells were multiple tornadoes, damaging winds, and giant hail upwards of 4.00″ in diameter. Widespread flash flooding also occurred across the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas. The morning data analysis, including the 1200z / 7:00am CDT observed weather balloon … Read more
Extremely warm and dry conditions across southern Georgia and Florida has set the stage for the eruption of wildfires and brushfires. The largest fire, West Mims, was triggered by lightning in early April and has burned over 225 square miles. A extremely high fire danger is likely to continue across these areas, with little hope of relief anytime soon. … Read more
What is Flood Insurance? Because standard homeowners insurance doesn’t cover damage from flooding, you will need to purchase a separate flood insurance policy to obtain coverage for your home and its contents. Fortunately, flood insurance is widely available from insurance companies that participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), a partnership between the Federal … Read more
A low pressure system was located over the southern and central Plains Thursday, May 11th. Although the low-level dynamics were quite weak the combination of the mid-to-upper level winds, and outflow boundaries analyzed on the visible satellite, signaled the potential for severe weather in the early afternoon Thursday across the region. How to Get Flood Insurance – … Read more
On the evening of Sunday, March 26th, 2017, severe thunderstorms affected portions of southern Oklahoma and North Texas. These storms were scattered, as predicted in our forecasts leading up to the event, and many people received no rain. We also expected that thunderstorms forming along the dry line would quickly develop updraft rotation (i.e., become … Read more
Severe thunderstorms were in the forecast across southwestern Oklahoma on Wednesday, May 10th. The potential for supercells (a rotating thunderstorm) existed as well, particularly along the intersection of the dryline and outflow boundary. The forecast was quite complicated, with early morning convection and persistent cloud cover across much of Oklahoma that made for a complex afternoon for … Read more
On Monday, May 8th, there was the potential for isolated thunderstorms across eastern Colorado with possible supercells (a rotating thunderstorm) along the Interstate 70 corridor in vicinity of the Palmer Divide. Although the tornado threat was very low, there was certainly a good chance of observing photogenic storms in the High Plains of Colorado. Forecast soundings … Read more
The United States government is working in collaboration with local communities to provide expeditious financial assistance to victims of weather disasters in support of damage recovery. Financial aid is provided through a variety of means including disaster loans, grants, and casualty tax deductions for losses resulting from the destruction of property or unexpected calamities, such … Read more
We recently reviewed ways to receive hazardous weather alerts via NOAA Weather Radio and were reminded by recent catastrophic flooding in Louisiana that it does not take a named storm system to cause catastrophic destruction (life and property). Now, we want to help you review ways to help you prepare for the next tropical event, … Read more
In an earlier article, we discussed the dynamics and thermodynamics of lake effect snow. In this post, we discuss the meteorological differences between single-band and multiple-band lake-effect snow events. Keep in mind that all lake-effect snow events are fueled by moisture and latent heat flux from the relatively warm lake water; these fluxes are already … Read more
Important Tools: Interactive & Predictive Radar | Weather Advisories Heavy snow is continuing across the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast as an area of low pressure moves northward along the eastern seaboard. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for a large portion of the inland mid-Atlantic and New England. Be sure to check road conditions along … Read more
Atmospheric gravity waves, known as undular bores, are waves in Earth’s atmosphere that often show up quite well on satellite and radar imagery. They are notorious for creating wave-like clouds, which clearly propagate as waves when viewed in rapid time-lapse photography. Low-level atmospheric stability is implicated in the formation of undular bores. Large static stability … Read more
➡︎ Update History: Initial Forecast (Sunday 10/18) | Update #2 | Update #3 | Update #4 | Results/Records Broken Latest Forecasts (Starting at Update #6 on Friday 10/23) Continued Here Forecast Verification and Records Tied or Broken ◙ Record #1 [Broken] 2.58 inches of rain at DFW on Thursday 10/22 shattered the previous record … Read more