On the afternoon of March 24, 2016, a stunning mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) formed within a mesoscale convective system as it moved over southern Alabama. I created the animation below using a sequence of radar images provided by the College of DuPage. What is an MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex)? An MCV is an area of … Read more
This past summer of 2016, I took on a meteorology internship position at KWCH Eyewitness News, an affiliate of CBS, in Wichita, Kansas. Throughout my college education career at Penn State University, I have worked hard at rounding my experience throughout the weather enterprise in as many ways as possible. And, while my ultimate goal is … Read more
The fluid dynamics associated with atmospheric disturbances cause the downstream air (ahead of the disturbance, before it arrives at a location) to rise, and the upstream air (behind the disturbance, i.e., after the disturbance has passed) to sink. If there is sufficient moisture in the area of rising air, clouds and precipitation may form. Necessary … Read more
The snow-to-liquid equivalent is the amount of liquid precipitation that is produced after melting snow. The temperature profile of the troposphere and the surface temperature are important factors that determine this value. The “average” snow-to-liquid ratio is 10:1. This is saying that if 10 inches of snow fell and that snow was melted it would … Read more
Snow is a precipitation type that results from the build-up of ice deposition upon condensation nuclei. The snowflake size is amplified as ice crystals join together as the crystals move in the wind. A common theme in ice crystal development is the 6-sized structure of the ice crystals. The chemical bonding of ice molecules produces … Read more
While injury from lightning strikes has increased since 1940, fatalities have decreased dramatically. In fact, lightning deaths have become exceedingly rare relative to other weather phenomena, but they still occur. The most dangerous lightning strikes are those that occur when our guard is down; lightning strikes from a sky that appears to be clear and … Read more
From elementary school through high school, I always looked forward to the month of March. But not for reasons that you might think. It was the month that I competed in science fairs. During those years, I had my share of successes and disappointments, but the benefits of my participation continue to this day. My experience with … Read more
Special Update (Tuesday, January 27 at 12:11 am EST): At midnight, snowfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour were moving west toward New York City. This band has been showing a decrease in intensity over the past couple of hours as the storm intensifies offshore and both the atmospheric energy and mesoscale forcing contract … Read more
On January 21-23rd, 2017, a rare, multifaceted severe weather outbreak occurred across the Deep South and southeastern United States. 80 tornadoes occurred over the three day span of the outbreak, of which several were strong (EF-2 to EF-3 strength), long-track tornadoes. This tornado outbreak was the second largest outbreak on record in the southeastern United States. … Read more
Despite a recent trend to colder temperatures and back to back blizzards in New England, this winter has been a mild one for most areas east of the Rockies. Surges of cold air have been sporadic and temperatures have been above to much above average for many locations. Moving on to next week it appears that much … Read more
The GOES-16 (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on November 19th of last year. Originally, the name of the satellite was GOES-R as it is part of a multi-satellite series, as GOES-S, GOES-T, and GOES-U, are scheduled to be launched in 2018, 2019, and 2024, respectively. GOES-16 underwent several technical calibrations after … Read more
Section 1: Is it Going to be a Big Deal? One of the more difficult forecasts to make is the winter precipitation forecast. The complexity is with determining precipitation type, areal coverage, and whether any winter precipitation will accumulate at the ground surface in the first place. The public is very sensitive to winter forecasts … Read more
The year of 2016, there were a total of 1,059 tornadoes across the U.S. (with the month of May, 2016 having some of the more photogenic tornadoes). How does this compare to other years? According to the 2005-2015 tornado climatology, there was an average of 1,402 tornadoes across the nation. Tornado activity for 2016 was below the 2005-2015 average. Each … Read more
Every four years, our nation conducts a ceremony for the newly elected president to begin a new term. There has been a wide variety of weather conditions over the years and I thought that it would be interesting to highlight some past inaugurations where weather played a significant role. Inauguration History The first inauguration ceremony was held for … Read more
It’s that time of year… Winter. The season when those unrealistic snow and ice accumulation maps, for an unlikely event 10 days into the future, that often go viral on social media. So, I wanted to briefly discuss the nature of internet weather hype and how you can learn to recognize it. As the National … Read more
Friday 2/12… For the sake of conversation, I wanted to share some thoughts about forecast variance (i.e., the tendency for forecasts to vary from one meteorologist to another), forecast advancements, and forecast techniques. It goes without saying that atmospheric prediction is *extremely* difficult and time consuming. During an active pattern, a forecast for a 36-hour … Read more
For well over 100 years, revelers by the thousands have flocked to Times Square and braved the elements to see the annual ball drop to ring in the New Year. Since the 1940’s millions more have been able to watch the festivities on television. Fortunately, most of these events have been without precipitation , with a few exceptions, but there … Read more
Final Update [Tuesday, February 9, 2016] Forecast Verification [Previous Forecasts Further Down the Page] Forecast Update #2 for Atlanta – Posted Friday 2/5/16 ***No Forecast Changes*** ***Light snow Monday night/Tuesday*** ***Some light accumulations possible*** ◙ A strong cold front will bring drastic temperature changes to Georgia Monday night… ◙ To get caught up … Read more
This past Christmas Day resulted in interesting weather across the central Plains. From strong thunderstorms in Kansas to the blizzard conditions in the Dakotas, the stockings were full of interesting weather Christmas morning. Nearly the entire state of Kansas, excluding the extreme western parts of the state, were impacted by a low-end squall line. I spent the … Read more
If you aren’t a skier and you long to get away from snow and frigid temperatures during the holiday season, there are a number of destinations where weather conditions can put a smile on your face and allow you to have a good time. Here’s a short list of cities that could be quite inviting to you this … Read more
Update #7 Sunday, February 15, 3:30 pm: Warmer air will surge in earlier than expected, meaning that only rain will fall in the Atlanta metro on Monday. Late in the day and overnight, the rain may change to freezing rain and/or sleet, especially east of a Cedartown to Douglasville to Conyers to Athens line (the … Read more
Special Update (Sunday 2/15 8:00 pm) ***Freezing Rain Possible Over Western Parts of North Texas*** ***West of a line from Gainesville to Denton to Fort Worth*** The strong cold front will move through North Texas tonight as predicted in my previous forecasts. Behind the front, temperatures will fall rapidly into the 30s. As of 8 … Read more
Overview: A winter storm is developing for North Texas. I have been monitoring the data very closely for the past few days, and my concern is growing that a problematic sleet & freezing rain event may impact the area beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday. On Sunday, temperatures should stay in the 40s as overcast … Read more
When it comes to winter weather, there is no shortage of advisory types. This page is devoted to the four main winter weather products: Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory, and Ice Storm Warning. More specifically, I want to discuss the criteria used by the National Weather Service Office in Fort Worth, … Read more
Final Update Saturday 2/28: Observed Snowfall Totals The following map was prepared by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth and is a graphical representation of over 200 reports gathered via social media, storm spotters, and official observers. I will gather additional information that will hopefully provide additional details/specifics. All updates starting with my initial … Read more
The map below shows the actual snowfall accumulations on February 27, 2015 in North Texas. Parts of North Texas received over 6 inches of snow. The accumulation map was prepared by the NWS in Fort Worth using more than 200 ground reports. Official Metroplex Airport Reports DFW Airport: 2 inches. Broke the previous daily record … Read more
Final Update: Thursday 3/5 9 pm: View the storm reports Discussion #6 Wednesday 3/4 at noon: ***Winter Storm Warning is in Effect*** I have been analyzing vertical thermodynamic profiles at various times over the next 15 hours and the evolution of the atmosphere continues to support a transition from rain to freezing rain this afternoon, … Read more
For a brief moment, it will feel like spring in northern Georgia. I expect temperatures on Wednesday (3/4) to be in the lower 70s. However, an Arctic front will move through Atlanta on Thursday morning, with temperatures falling through the 30s. Low temperatures Friday morning (3/6) will be in the lower 20s. A lot of … Read more
Below are details of the March 4th-5th 2015 snowstorm in North Texas. You may be interested in these related pages: DFW snowfall records dating back to 1898 List of the worst snowstorms to hit DFW (top 20) 2015 snow and sleet events (2014-2015 winter) Current snow cover map (updated daily) Daily Snowfall Accum Stats for … Read more
Cold-air damming (CAD), often called “the wedge” in the Southeast, is an interesting meteorological feature that can result in tricky forecasts for meteorologists. Topography plays a major role in CAD events, and you need a mountainous range for this feature to develop. While CAD can occur in the Rockies, it is predominant east of the … Read more