Update #5 Friday 3/20 at 1:30 pm [Final Update]: A few official rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours Sister Grove Ck (Collin): 1.86 Melissa (Collin): 1.43 Prosper (Collin): 1.24 Dallas, Irving Blvd (Dallas): 0.51 Gainesville (Cooke): 1.56 Valley View (Cooke): 1.67 Denton (Denton): 0.81 Ladonia (Fannin): 2.93 Celeste (Hunt): 2.17 Alvord (Wise): 1.14 Update … Read more
→ Read my initial forecast published on Saturday, March 21 Final Update – Observed Low Temperatures on the morning of March 29, 2014 The freeze that was predicted for over a week verified perfectly. All locations in northern Georgia fell below freezing for 4 or more hours Saturday night/Sunday morning. I’ve gone through the observations, … Read more
UPDATE: Thursday 4/9 at 4 pm [Update Regarding Convective Initiation]: My map yesterday placed convective initiation along a McKinney to DFW Airport to Stephenville line. I am adjusting it west by about 20 miles to from Pilot Point to Fort Worth to Stephenville. This shift wouldn’t normally be significant (it’s within the margin of error), … Read more
Special Update [Saturday 4/18 7:40 pm] Significant thunderstorm wind damage is likely in the path of this downburst throughout Tarrant County, with winds in excess of 70 mph possible. It is moving northeast through Tarrant County. Velocity Image at 7:40 pm: Fourth Forecast Update [Saturday 4/18 5:45 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 1 am*** Includes … Read more
Update #2 [Wednesday 4/22 10:40 pm] ***Severe Thunderstorm Watch*** A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the thunderstorms that developed to the northwest as predicted. These continue to move southeast. The watch is in effect until 4 am. Read my initial forecast discussion posted the day before, on Tuesday 4/21 Update#1 [Radar Update – … Read more
Slow-moving, training supercells brought enormous rainfall amounts to the southern Oklahoma City metro on Wednesday, May 6, 2015. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour occurred with the thunderstorms. Update: The rainfall total has been updated to reflect the final official amount as confirmed by the NWS. The change was minor (a tenth of … Read more
Below is my partial/subjective surface analysis using 2 pm data. There is certainly a convoluted mess of fronts associated with this surface low. However, the dry line is obvious with at least one dry-line bulge southwest of the metroplex. Surface-based convective available potential energy (CAPE) in that area exceeds 4,000 J/kg. There is a θe … Read more
Read Initial Forecast #1 | Use Radar/Advisory Tools on the DFW Page Final Update [Rainfall Record Broken – Sunday 5/24] DFW Airport received 3.31 inches of rain today (Sunday, May 24, 2015), which breaks the record for the greatest amount ever recorded on this date. The previous record was 3.28″ set in 1908. Records date … Read more
May 2015 was an exhausting month for forecasters in Oklahoma and Texas. One storm system after another brought enormous rainfall and significant flooding to many areas. I will try to post some dynamics/thermodynamics analyses or a general recap of each individual storm system in a future addendum to this post. For now, I wanted to … Read more
A follower asked, “if the water cycle is real, how can there be water shortages?” In light of the recent drought in Texas, which ultimately ended with the historic rainfall during the month of May 2015, and the ongoing devastating drought in California, I thought I would make this brief post. What is the Water … Read more
Latest Forecast ➡ A new post about Tropical Storm Bill was started to help improve readability. All previous forecast updates in the three days leading up to Bill’s formation are archived below, in the order that they were written. ➡ Final Event Recap: As predicted, peak wind gusts of 50 mph and greater, and record … Read more
May 2015 was the wettest month ever recorded in the United States since record keeping began 121 years ago according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The main contributing factor to the nation’s “wettest-May” was the incredible rainfall totals across the Central United States. Meteorologist Chris Robbins posted that May 2015 was the wettest … Read more
This post is a carryover from the previous post that contained three days worth of forecast updates leading up to the formation of Tropical Storm Bill. In an effort to improve readability, I thought it would be best to create a new post given that T. S. Bill will soon make landfall and subsequently move … Read more
I want to kick off this piece with a discussion of Tropical Depression Bill’s intensification over Missouri, hundreds of miles inland. ➡ Click here to skip to the North Texas impacts to see how much rain fell at DFW and what the peak winds were as Bill passed across the area. At 4 p.m. CDT Friday, … Read more
Summary & Forecast Verification [Thursday 8/20/15 8 pm] ***Today Among Our Coldest August Days on Record*** A few days ago, I predicted that our strongest cold front in 3 months would move through North Texas (below). The forecast worked out perfectly (and to the contrary of the armchair meteorologists who declared otherwise on the day … Read more
Prior to the advent of weather satellites and aircraft reconnaissance of tropical cyclones during the mid-20th century, the loss of life due to unexpected, landfalling hurricanes was tremendous. In 2015, hurricane forecasting continues to improve thanks to ongoing upgrades in observational technology (aircraft, dropsondes, tail radar, etc.), computational resources, improved numerical prediction models (model resolution, … Read more
On this, the -year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s final landfall east of New Orleans, I wanted to share some graphics and the very rare, dire warning issued the National Weather Service in Slidell, Louisiana that likely saved many, many lives. Radar Loop at Landfall Satellite Loop at Landfall Location of the NWS Brief … Read more
On August 29, 2015, for the first time on record, three *major* hurricanes were active simultaneously in the central/eastern Pacific (east of the International Date Line, 180ºW). A major hurricane is defined as a category 3 or higher. Yet another record was set at 10 pm CDT. 8 pm CDT 8/29: Three Major Hurricanes Set … Read more
Answer: A hurricane is the exact same meteorological phenomenon as a typhoon. The difference is simply a function of the storm’s location relative to the International Date Line (180ºW). A “hurricane” west of the International Date Line (IDL) is called a typhoon. The term is believed to have its origins in Sinitic, one of the … Read more
How does the first freeze of 2015 compare with normal (climatology)? ❄️ The average first freeze at DFW is November 22. Therefore, this year’s freeze was right on schedule, based on the current 30-year average (1981-2010). Other Freeze Statistics for DFW: Average first freeze: November 22 Average last freeze: March 13 Earliest freeze on record: … Read more
Outcome Update #2 Posted Sunday 11/29/15 at Noon The rainfall configuration and amounts lined up very well with my forecasts leading up to this event (documented further down this page). Records were set, as predicted, and 2015 will go down as the wettest year on record. Check out our real-time rainfall tally to see how … Read more
Christmas Week Forecast Page ➡︎ Heavy Rain Event & Possible Flooding: ● Forecast #1 Thu 12/24 ● Forecast #2 Fri 12/25 ➡︎ All Christmas Week Updates: ● #1 Sun 12/13 ● #2 Tues 12/15 ● #3 Sat 12/19 ● #4 Thurs 12/24 ● #5 Fri 12/25 First forecast is at the … Read more
2015 was Atlanta’s Warmest Christmas on Record Results of My Forecast Posted on December 23rd On December 23rd, I predicted that records would be tied or broken each day from Christmas Eve through December 27th (4 days in a row). As of 5 am, Sunday 12/27, the forecast has been a success. My median forecast … Read more
Special (1/14/2016) Alex became a hurricane on Thursday Jan 14, 2016 Update [Wednesday January 13, 2016 at 5 pm AST] Sub-Tropical Storm Alex has formed in the East Atlantic. As discussed below, Alex is only the second-known storm to form during the month of January in the 174-year database (1842-present). ➡︎ See also: Forecast #1 … Read more
➡︎ Quick Links: ● Latest update ● Initial forecast (Tues 1/19) ● Snow forecast ● Radar Special Update (Thursday 1/21 3:30 pm) Flood Watch now in effect for tonight through Saturday morn Winter Weather Advisory for accumulating snow effective Fri 3 pm – Sat 7 am. NOTE: I do not expect any snow in the … Read more
Forecast Update [Saturday 1/30 7:45 am] ***80º today ~ 25 deg above normal*** ***Wind gusts to 40 mph late afternoon/tonight*** This is an update to the original forecast from Monday 1/25 — The only change is to raise high temperatures for today as I mentioned would be possible in the Monday forecast update. The springlike … Read more
Brief Overview of the Storm’s Evolution SST Anomalies Evolution of the Surface Low (Animation) After the surface low emerged over the anomalously warm ocean water on the morning of January 23, it deepened and intensified for another 12 to 15 hours with the central pressure reaching a minimum of 983 mb on the evening of … Read more
On Monday, March 7th, 2016, a spectacular supercell formed in far northwestern Oklahoma and entered southern Kansas. A supercell is a thunderstorm that rotates. Conditions on Monday were favorable for a couple of supercells to initiate off the dryline in far western Oklahoma, and into western Kansas. However, given weak convergence along the dryline and meager … Read more
On Sunday, March 13, 2016, DFW Airport (along with many other locations) reached 80 degrees for the first time this year. Prior to 3/13, the last time DFW was at or above 80º was on December 26th. December 26, 2015 was the date of the historic EF-4 tornado that tore a path through the eastern … Read more
I typically do not share model data because they can be very complex. I do want to show one of the state-of-the-art programs that I use in my operations to analyze model-simulated soundings. The models do not automatically compute these data; the additional software turns the raw output into meaningful information. At least one of … Read more